Chapter 124 Jing Xiansheng

"Jing Xiansheng?" Feng Bujue immediately understood the meaning of the address. "Oh...so, you mean Hualian (In Peking opera, "Jing" is usually called Hualian, with Zheng Jing, Fu Jing, and Wu Jing corresponding to Da Hualian, Er Hualian, and Wu Hualian/Wu Er Hualian)?"

"Stop being glib with me." Jing Xiansheng was a little surprised that Brother Jue had gotten his meaning, but he didn't intend to continue arguing about it with the other party. "What about you? Crow's Mouth?"

"Sure thing." Feng Bujue smiled generously. "Just call me 'Crow's Mouth'."

"Hmph..." Jing Xiansheng snorted coldly. "Then, I'll start setting the questions, Crow's Mouth."

As he spoke, he picked up the paper and pen in front of him.

"Suit yourself." Feng Bujue held his drink, leaning on the table with his elbow (the cart was about 1.25 meters high; an adult of average height could rest their elbow on the table by leaning forward), responding very casually.

...

According to the rules, the guess-the-number game was divided into two rounds. In the first round, the challenger made the opening bid and guessed, while the challenged party was responsible for setting the question.

And in each round, there were "two parts" that needed bidding:

The first part – the guesser "declares" how many rounds it will take to guess the correct answer, and then the question setter bids based on the number of rounds given by the guesser. The minimum bet cannot be less than 1% of their total amount of money at the start of the match. The stake after this bid is fixed; the guesser cannot raise the bet further, and must follow.

For example… suppose the guesser declares that they can guess the answer "within five rounds." Obviously, the probability of this happening is almost zero. At this time, the question setter will definitely bid the maximum amount they can bid, and the challenger must follow (if they have less money than the other party, they must follow the organizer's second rule and bet everything to continue the match).

Then, when this round is "completely over," the two parties will settle the costs according to the final number of rounds.

Of course, the above situation is unlikely to occur...

Because the betting in "this part," that is, the "betting on rounds" part, is generally for the guesser to get some money.

As long as the guesser declares an exaggerated number like "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds," they basically win. That's why this part of the bidding is done by the question setter... When facing such a number, the question setter will definitely only bid the lowest amount they can bid.

In other words, after the outcome of this round, as long as the guesser doesn't lose everything during the match and is disqualified, they can basically safely get back a small amount of money from the question setter when settling up.

This setting is mainly to take into account the guesser's obvious disadvantage in the match.

Next, let’s look at the bidding in the "second part":

This part is carried out repeatedly during the match... That is, in each round, the guesser has to make a bid. Similarly… each bid must not be less than 1% of their maximum money limit. And the question setter has two choices: first, follow the bet; second, surrender.

Following the bet naturally means continuing the game; while "surrendering" means the question setter admits defeat, and the round ends after they pay the corresponding penalty.

If the "betting on rounds" rule is to protect the guesser, then the "surrender" rule is naturally to protect the question setter.

Let's use an example... If there was no "surrender" option, then all guessers could use a very simple tactic to guarantee they win money, which is – from the first round onwards, only bet the minimum amount each round, and then bet all their remaining money in the round they are sure they can guess correctly.

Using this tactic, as long as the guesser can guess the answer within fifty rounds, they are invincible. This does not even include the "betting on rounds" amount before the start of each round.

Therefore, there is a "surrender" setting.

Of course, "surrender" is also limited; otherwise, the question setter could also use this to win steadily... For example, suddenly surrendering when the game has gone on for a dozen or twenty rounds to cut losses.

To prevent this from happening, there is a "surrender penalty."

In this guess-the-number game, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender penalty –

The first one applies to surrendering within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the opponent's money at the start of the match * (50 + the number of rounds completed)% + 10% of the opponent's bet in this round + the basic penalty.

The second formula is used from the twenty-first round onwards: 10% of the opponent's money at the start of the match * (50 - the number of rounds completed)% + 10% of the opponent's bet in this round + the basic penalty.

The so-called "basic penalty" is divided according to the current round number. The basic penalty for surrendering in rounds 1-10 is 5% of the opponent's money at the start of the match. The basic penalty for surrendering in rounds 11-20 is 10% of the opponent's money at the start of the match. From rounds 21-30, it will rise to 20% of the opponent's money at the start of the match... And from the 31st round onwards, the basic penalty goes directly to zero.

Let's give another example... In a certain match, both sides start with $100,000. The guesser bets 1% each round and loses $30,000 after thirty rounds. Then, in the thirty-first round, they are sure they can win. At this point, they bet all their remaining $70,000.

Seeing this, the question setter chooses to surrender... At this time, the penalty the question setter needs to pay is 10% of $100,000 multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, which is $2,000... plus 10% of the opponent's bet in this round, which is $7,000... plus a basic penalty of zero, for a total of $9,000.

Although it's a one-time loss of nine thousand, it's much better than seventy thousand.

In short, when the question setter chooses to surrender, this round ends. Still using the above example, the result is – the question setter wins $21,000 from the guesser.

After completing this settlement, the two parties will then settle the "betting on rounds." Suppose the guesser previously declared "within one hundred rounds," and the question setter bid the minimum of $1,000, then... at this time, the question setter will pay the guesser another $1,000, and the final net win is $20,000.

The above is the general situation of how the question setter chooses the timing to surrender through the guesser increasing the bet "under normal circumstances."

So... under the same conditions, what if the question setter chooses the "cut losses" tactic?

I won't list the detailed calculation process here. Let's directly look at the result... Let's assume that both sides have $100,000 and the guesser bets $1,000 each time –

If the question setter surrenders in the first round (note that the extra percentage in the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), they lose $10,100. In the second round, it's $10,200. After that, it increases by $100 every round until the tenth round.

In other words, the question setter will lose money if they surrender in any round in the first ten rounds.

Starting from the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic penalty, the penalty for surrendering in this round jumps to $16,100, and then increases by $100 each round. This way, the question setter will only have the opportunity to "cut losses" in the eighteenth round. If they surrender in this round, the penalty is $16,800, while the amount earned in the previous seventeen rounds is $17,000, which is a profit of $200. But... don't forget the money from "betting on rounds." If you count that, it's still a loss... Therefore, you have to wait another round. In the nineteenth round, you earn $18,000, the penalty is $16,900 + $1,000 for betting on rounds. At this time, you barely earn $100...

Therefore, in the first twenty rounds, there are only two opportunities to "win steadily," which are to surrender in the nineteenth and twentieth rounds. According to the formula, the former can earn $100, and the latter can earn $1,000...

But... you finally get to be the question setter once. Is earning a thousand enough? Don't forget that this game is a "first-come-first-served" system. It doesn't mean you can advance just because you didn't lose money.

So, let's look at the situation starting from the twenty-first round...

From this round onwards, the formula changes, but the basic penalty also increases again. The penalty for surrendering in the twenty-first round is $23,100, and then decreases by $100 each round. Obviously... from this round onwards, the surrender mechanism starts to favor the question setter. Because after twenty rounds, the probability of the guesser guessing the answer is getting higher and higher.

This way, including the $1,000 for betting on rounds, the "twenty-fifth round" will be a watershed. The penalty for this round is $22,700. Adding the $1,000 for betting on rounds makes $23,700, but the money the question setter has won... is $24,000. Of course, this is only a profit of $300, so this is not the point...

The point is that from this round onwards, the amount the question setter suddenly earns by surrendering will increase by $1,100 every round.

After six rounds, in the thirty-first round, the "basic penalty" returns to zero, and the question setter suddenly has an extra $20,000. In this round, if the guesser doesn't raise the bet, the penalty for the question setter to directly surrender is only $2,100, and the money they have won at this moment is already $30,000. Even if you remove the money from betting on rounds, it is still a net profit of $26,900...

In summary, the key battle in this guess-the-number game is between the twenty-fifth and thirtieth rounds... If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the thirty-first round, then the question setter can win steadily by surrendering immediately and earning 29% of your chips. Even if you happen to guess it in the thirty-first round, you will only recover about 10% of the loss.

Of course, although I have said a lot, it is only theory.

In actual matches, all kinds of situations can occur...

Maybe someone can guess the answer within twenty-five rounds; maybe someone can increase the chips without guessing to put pressure on the other party; maybe someone will forcibly raise the bet when they think they have guessed correctly or when they are watching the thirty rounds pass, but is seen through and followed by the other party...

At the gambling table, deception, calculation, performance, seeing through... anything can happen.

In the world of gambling, probability will not respect you, and there is no god of luck.

The luck you get from praying ten thousand times is not as good as the skill you achieve from honing ten thousand times.

The weak will be defeated, swallowed, crushed... and will not receive any sympathy.

Winning and surviving... is the only justice in this world.

...

A minute later, Jing Xiansheng had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.

Then, he folded the paper, carefully protected it with his palm, and handed it to the man in a suit and sunglasses next to the cart.

The latter also carefully took the paper and turned around, blocking Feng Bujue's view with his broad back, and then unfolded the paper and looked at the numbers on it.

Two seconds later, the man in the suit and sunglasses re-folded the paper and put it in his jacket pocket.

He turned around, faced the table again, and then said to Jing Xiansheng, "Once the numbers are determined, they cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, are those six numbers... okay?"

"Yes." Jing Xiansheng replied firmly, "I'm sure."

"Okay." The man in the suit and sunglasses nodded. "You have all read the rules, but I still need to emphasize a few points..." He paused for half a second and continued, "First of all, if cheating is caught, it will immediately be judged as a loss, and all the money will go to the other party." As he said that, he reached out and gestured towards a small device on the table. "Secondly, this timer on the table is similar to the ones used in chess competitions and records the time used by both parties. The guesser's total time is forty-five minutes. If the answer is not guessed within this time, then no matter what round it is currently in, how much money both parties have, and how much the amount of "betting on rounds" is... it will be considered a "complete defeat" for the guesser. The money of the completely defeated party will also belong entirely to the other party." He paused and added, "In addition, the time for the guesser to make a bet, the time for the question setter to follow the bet, and the time for the question setter to give feedback on the guesser's answer are all calculated separately - betting and following must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds. Those who violate the rules will be fined 1% of the maximum money limit at the start for the first time, 2% for the second time, and so on..."

The rules that the man in the suit is emphasizing are indeed very important. The penalty for cheating goes without saying... For the situation of "maliciously delaying time," the organizer has naturally already taken it into account when designing the game. With the high price, the ugly and unskilled means of "delaying time" are basically unlikely to occur.

This way, the rhythm of the game can be kept tight, creating considerable pressure...

And the various performances of the "guests" under pressure are exactly what the organizers want to see.

"Ah~ ah~ I know, can we start now?" Feng Bujue seemed a little impatient after listening to the man in the suit.

The man in the suit did not answer him, but looked at both parties in the match expressionlessly and raised his hand to the timer.

After confirming the reactions of Brother Jue and Jing Xiansheng respectively, the man in the suit said, "Since both parties have no objections, then... the match begins!"