San Tian Liang Jue
Chapter 1177 Guessing Number Duel (Chuunibyou)
"Don't be glib with me." Jing-xiansheng was a little surprised that Brother Jue had gotten the meaning of his title, but he didn't plan to continue discussing the issue with him. "What about you? Crows Mouth?"
"Sure." Feng Bujue smiled magnanimously. "Just call me 'Crows Mouth.'"
"Hmph..." Jing-xiansheng snorted coldly. "Then, I'll start setting the questions, Crows Mouth."
As he spoke, he picked up the paper and pen in front of him.
"Suit yourself." Feng Bujue, holding a cup of drink, supported the table with one elbow (the trolley was about one meter and twenty-five centimeters high, and adults of average height could rest their elbows on the table by leaning forward), and replied very easily.
…………
According to the rules, the number-guessing game was divided into two rounds. In the first round, the challenger called the bet and guessed, while the challenged party was responsible for setting the questions.
In each round, there were "two parts" that needed to be called:
The first part – the guesser "declares" that they can guess the correct answer within "how many rounds," and then the questioner bids according to the number of rounds given by the opponent. The minimum bet amount shall not be less than 1% of the total amount of gold held at the beginning of the duel; the bet amount after this call is fixed, and the guesser cannot further increase the bet and must follow.
For example... suppose the guesser declares that they can guess the answer within "five rounds." Obviously, the probability of this happening is almost zero; at this time, the questioner will definitely directly bet the maximum amount they can bet, and the challenger must follow (if the money is less than the opponent's, refer to Rule 2 stated by the organizer, bet all, and continue the duel).
Then, after the duel "completely ends," the two parties will settle this fee according to the final number of rounds.
Of course, the above situation is unlikely to occur...
Because the betting in "this part," that is, the "betting on rounds" part, is generally for giving money to the guesser.
As long as the guesser says an exaggerated number like "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds" when declaring, they will basically win steadily. Therefore, the betting in this part will be done by the questioner... when faced with that kind of number, the questioner will definitely only call the lowest bet amount they can call.
In other words, after the victory or defeat of this round, as long as the guesser has not lost all their money and lost their qualification during the duel, they can basically safely take back a small sum of money from the questioner when the settlement is made.
This setting is mainly considered because the guesser is at a clear disadvantage in the duel.
Next, let's look at the betting in the "second part":
This part is carried out repeatedly during the duel... that is, in each round, the guesser must make a bet, and similarly... the amount of each bet cannot be less than 1% of their holding limit; and the questioner has two options: first, call; second, surrender.
Calling naturally allows the game to continue; and "surrendering" means that the questioner admits defeat, and after paying the corresponding fine, the round is declared over.
If the rule of "betting on rounds" is to protect the guesser, then the rule of "surrender" is naturally to protect the questioner.
Let's give an example again... if there is no "surrender" option, then all guessers can use a very simple tactic to ensure that they win money, that is - from the first round, only bet the minimum amount in each round, and then, in the round where they are sure they can guess correctly, bet all the remaining money.
With this tactic, as long as the answer can be guessed within fifty rounds, the guesser will be invincible; this does not even count the "betting on rounds" amount before the start of each round.
Therefore, there is the setting of "surrender."
Of course, "surrender" is also limited, otherwise the questioner can also use this to achieve a steady win... for example, surrendering suddenly when the game has been going on for a dozen or twenty rounds, taking profit when one sees it.
In order to prevent this from happening, there is the "surrender fine."
In this number-guessing duel, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender fine -
The first type applies to situations where surrender occurs within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the opponent's holding amount at the beginning of the duel * (50 + number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round + basic fine.
The second type is the formula used from the twenty-first round: 10% of the opponent's holding amount at the beginning of the duel * (50 - number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round + basic fine.
The so-called "basic fine" is divided according to the current number of rounds. The basic fine for surrendering within 1-10 rounds is 5% of the opponent's holding amount at the beginning of the duel, and the basic fine for surrendering within 11-20 rounds is 10% of the opponent's holding amount at the beginning of the duel. By rounds 21-30, it will rise to 20% of the opponent's holding amount at the beginning of the duel... and from round 31, the basic fine will directly return to zero.
Let's give another example... In a certain duel, both parties hold $100,000 at the beginning of the game, and the guesser bets 1% each round, losing a total of $30,000 after thirty rounds; then, in the thirty-first round, he is confident of winning, and at this time, he bets all the remaining $70,000.
Seeing this, the questioner chooses to surrender... At this time, the fine that the questioner needs to pay is 10% of $100,000 multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, which is $2,000... plus 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round, which is $7,000... plus a basic fine of zero, for a total of $9,000.
Although it spits out nine thousand at once, it is much better than seventy thousand.
In short, when the questioner chooses to surrender, the round is declared over. Still taking the above example, the result is - the questioner wins $21,000 from the guesser.
After completing this part of the settlement, the two parties will then carry out the settlement of "betting on the number of rounds." Assuming that the guesser had previously declared "within one hundred rounds" and the questioner had bid the minimum of $1,000, then... at this time, the questioner will pay the guesser another $1,000, finally winning a net amount of twenty thousand.
The above is the general scenario of when the questioner chooses the timing of surrender by "the guesser increasing the bet amount."
So... under the same conditions, what if the questioner chooses the "take profit when one sees it" tactic?
Here, I will no longer list the detailed calculation process. Let's directly look at the result... Just follow the assumption that both parties have $100,000 and the guesser bets $1,000 each time -
If the questioner surrenders in the first round (note that the extra percentage in the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), they lose 10100, and in the second round it is 10200, and then increases by $100 every round until the tenth round.
That is to say, the questioner loses money if they surrender in any round in the first ten rounds.
From the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic fine, the fine for surrendering in this round jumps to 16100, and then adds 100 each round; in this way, the questioner will have the opportunity to "take profit when one sees it" in the eighteenth round. If they surrender in this round, the fine is 16800, while the amount earned in the previous seventeen rounds is 17000, which is a profit of 200, but... don't forget the money from "betting on rounds." Including that, it is still a loss... so you have to wait another round. By the nineteenth round, you earn 18000, the fine is 16900 + betting on rounds 1000, and at this time, you only earn 100...
Therefore, in the first twenty rounds, there are only two opportunities to "win steadily," that is, surrendering in the nineteenth and twentieth rounds. According to the formula, the former can earn 100 and the latter can earn 1000...
But... you rarely get to be the questioner, and you're done with earning a thousand? Don't forget that this game is a "first-to-qualify system." It doesn't mean you can qualify just because you didn't lose money.
So, let's look at the situation starting from the twenty-first round...
The formula changes from this round, but the basic fine also increases again. The fine for surrendering in the twenty-first round is 23100, and then decreases by 100 each round; obviously... from this round, the surrender mechanism begins to tend to protect the questioner. Because after twenty rounds, the probability of the guesser guessing the answer has become increasingly high.
In this way, including that 1000 for betting on rounds, "the twenty-fifth round" will be a watershed; the fine for this round is 22700, plus the 1000 for betting on rounds, it is 23700, but the money that the questioner wins... is 24000; of course, this is only a profit of 300, so this is not the point...
The point is that, starting from this round, the amount that the questioner suddenly surrenders and wins will increase by $1,100 every round.
After six rounds like this, by the thirty-first round, the "basic fine" returns to zero, and the questioner suddenly has an extra twenty thousand. In this round, if the guesser does not increase the bet, the fine for the questioner to surrender directly is only $2,100, and the money he has won at this moment has already reached thirty thousand. Even if the money for betting on rounds is removed, he will still earn a net amount of 26900...
In summary, the key confrontation in this number-guessing game is between the twenty-fifth and thirtieth rounds... If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the thirty-first round, then the questioner only needs to surrender immediately to steadily earn 29% of your chips. Even if you just happen to guess it in the thirty-first round, you will only recover about 10% of the loss.
Of course, although I have said a lot, it is all just theory.
In an actual duel, all kinds of situations can occur...
Maybe someone can guess the answer within twenty-five rounds; maybe someone can increase the chips to exert pressure without guessing; maybe someone will forcibly increase the bet when they think they have guessed correctly, or when they see that thirty rounds are about to pass, but they are seen through and followed up by the opponent...
On the gambling table, fraud, calculation, performance, seeing through... anything can happen.
In the world of gambling, probability will not respect you, and there is no god of luck.
The luck earned by praying ten thousand times is not as good as the skill achieved by honing ten thousand times.
The weak will be defeated, swallowed, crushed... and will not receive any sympathy.
Winning and surviving... is the only justice in this world.
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A minute later, Jing-xiansheng had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.
Then, he folded the paper and carefully shielded it with his palm, and handed it to the man in a suit and sunglasses next to the trolley.
The latter also took the paper very cautiously, turned around, blocked Feng Bujue's view with his broad back, and then unfolded the paper and glanced at the numbers on it.
Two seconds later, the man in a suit and sunglasses refolded the paper and put it in his jacket pocket.
He turned around, stood upright again facing the table, and then said to Jing-xiansheng, "Once the numbers are determined, they cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, those six numbers just now... are they okay?"
"Yes." Jing-xiansheng replied firmly, "I'm sure."
"Okay." The man in the suit and sunglasses nodded, "You have all read the rules, but I still need to emphasize a few points..." He paused for half a second, and then continued, "First of all, if cheating is caught, you will immediately be judged to have lost, and all the money will belong to the opponent." As he said, he stretched out his hand and gestured towards a small device on the table, "Secondly, the timer on the table is similar to the one used in chess competitions and records the time used by both sides; the guesser's total time is forty-five minutes. If the answer is still not guessed within this time, then no matter which round is currently in progress, how much money both sides have, and how much the 'bet on rounds' amount is... the guesser will be considered to have 'completely lost'. The holding gold of the completely defeated also belongs to the opponent." He paused and added, "In addition, the time for the guesser to call bets, the time for the questioner to follow bets, and the time for the questioner to provide feedback on the guesser's answers are all calculated separately – calling bets and following bets must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds; those who violate the regulations will be fined 1% of the holding gold limit at the beginning of the game for the first time, 2% for the second time, and so on..."
The rules emphasized by the man in the suit right now are indeed very important. The punishment for cheating goes without saying... The organizer has naturally taken into account the situation of "maliciously delaying time" when designing the game. Under the high cost, the ugly and unskilled means of "delaying time" are basically unlikely to occur.
Only in this way can the rhythm of the game be kept tight and create considerable pressure...
And the various performances of the "guests" under pressure are exactly what the organizer wants to see.
"Ah~ ah~ I know, can we start?" Feng Bujue seemed a little impatient after listening to the man in the suit.
The man in the suit did not answer him, but looked at both sides of the duel with a blank expression, and raised his hand to the timer.
After confirming the reactions of Brother Jue and Jing-xiansheng respectively, the man in the suit said, "Since both parties have no objection, then... the duel begins!"