Soha, also known as "Sha Xie" or "Hong Kong Five Card Stud," gained immense popularity in mainland China thanks to a series of widely acclaimed gambling films like "God of Gamblers," "Casino Raiders," and "All for the Winner."
I won't go into the rules or hand rankings, as I'm sure everyone is already familiar with them.
Let's get straight to the point.
As soon as I took my seat, the dealer, who had been waiting nearby, immediately began to break, inspect, shuffle, and deal the cards.
At the same time, a large screen on the left side of the hall suddenly displayed my name and that of the Three-Level expert, along with our respective chip counts.
Through the big screen, I learned that the Three-Level expert sitting directly opposite me was named He Guan.
After the dealer finished shuffling, the life-and-death gamble between He Guan and me officially commenced...
Sitting opposite each other, neither of us spoke to the other first, but our eyes were locked on each other.
I imagine He Guan, like me, understood very well that in a high-stakes gamble of this caliber, trying to pry information through conversation was utterly useless.
He'd rather spend that idle time trying to figure out how to ensure he walked away from the table safely.
Black tent, white table, living sacrifice!
Only one of us would make it out alive!
It seemed tonight was the night to test my gambling skills.
Win and escape the tiger's jaws; lose and forfeit my life!
...
The dealer began to deal the cards.
From the moment the cards were inspected and shuffled, I had been paying close attention to the dealer, ensuring they weren't using any sleight of hand before shifting my gaze back.
Following the order of guest before host, the dealer first dealt cards to me, then to He Guan.
I didn't look at my hole card; my face-up card was a red Four.
As for He Guan, his face-up card was a conspicuous face card – a black Jack.
With a significantly weaker starting face-up card, I decided to check my hole card before deciding whether to call.
A red Three, a potential flush.
With a starting hand like this, there's only one way to describe it: barely hanging on!
Some might scoff at my words, thinking that while my card's numerical value was indeed lower, it had the advantage of being the same suit.
Such a hand could aim for the highest possible hand in Soha, a straight flush, or even a straight.
Of course, if the third card was also a 3 or a 4, and extending this logic further...
Then hands like four of a kind or a full house would also have a chance.
In the eyes of many, this is the charm of Soha!
With the first two cards dealt, one face-up and one face-down, as long as the card distribution is good, it gives all participating gamblers an infinitely extendable possibility!
But if you ask me, you're all dreaming!
Because the probability of getting those hands mentioned above is very, very, very low!
Don't be fooled by protagonists in gambling movies who, in duels, frequently get hands like straight flushes, four of a kind, or full houses; those are all pre-arranged by the director.
In a real Soha game, playing all night, getting a three of a kind would already be considered an immense blessing from Buddha!
This is because, out of 52 playing cards randomly dealt into five-card combinations, there are over two and a half million possible arrangements!
And among these, the probability of forming a straight flush is only 0.00154%, while the probability of forming a flush is 0.198%.
According to hand rankings, below a straight flush is four of a kind, with a probability of obtaining it only slightly higher than a straight flush, at 0.024%.
Below four of a kind is a full house, which is three of a kind with a pair, with a probability of around 0.14%.
The probability of a straight following four of a kind is around 0.39%, and below a straight is three of a kind, with a probability of 2.1%.
This is why I say that playing Soha all night and getting a hand of three of a kind would already be considered an immense blessing.
Because the probabilities of various hand combinations, calculated through big data analysis, are right there.
Instead of racking your brains to aim for a straight flush, you might as well go to a lottery shop and study the trends of the Mega Millions – honestly!
One of the main reasons some people are so infatuated with winning through trickery stems largely from the big data probabilities of card game hand types.
Probability is dead; people are alive!
Just as people can create and calculate probabilities, they can also change them!
Only by mastering the divine skill of trickery can one, like the protagonists in gambling movies, fearlessly conjure winning hands like straight flushes, four of a kind, and full houses.
...
In the first round of the first game, due to the difference in face-up card values, He Guan initiated the betting.
Without a word, as soon as He Guan gained the right to speak from the dealer, he threw ten million chips into the pot.
My initial thought was that if He Guan were smart, he would have bet the minimum of one million on the first hand, tricking me into paying to chase probability cards.
This way, no matter what the second face-up card was, driven by human nature's inherent risk-taking and competitive psychology...
If the initiative was on my side, I would still be thinking of playing another hand, risking a little for a lot.
Conversely, if the initiative was on the opponent's side, I would set a psychological price limit that I could accept.
If the price was right, I'd call; if not, I'd fold.
But unexpectedly, He Guan went straight for ten million.
Seeing this, I didn't hesitate and immediately announced that I was folding and would play the next hand, letting He Guan pocket a million chip ante for fun.
In the second game, He Guan got an Ace face-up, and my hand wasn't bad either, a Queen face-up.
With the advantage, He Guan followed the same pattern as the first game, directly raising the bet to ten million.
I still chose to fold instead of calling, and He Guan collected another million ante.
In the following few hands, whenever He Guan gained the initiative at the start, he would immediately throw ten million chips into the pot.
During this time, I folded more often than I called.
Logically, I should have lost some money accumulating small losses, but in one hand where I called, I got three of a kind and won, recouping all the money I had lost earlier.
For the first half-hour of this life-and-death gamble, He Guan and I engaged in mutual probing and strategic play, with one focusing on stability and the other on aggressive probing.
There was no clear winner; He Guan was mostly winning, but he was winning the antes.
To break his initial aggressive three-pronged attack, all I needed was to endure and wait patiently for the right moment.
As long as I could win one hand, I could win back all the antes I had lost.